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Stock Market History Nasdaq Composite Index 10 Year Bear History Part 1

I need help with my AP U.S. History homework.?

The anti-combination laws passed by many states in the late nineteenth century were a response to which of the following organizational innovations?
A) the creation and growth of international cartels
B) the development of industry wide trade associations
C) the joining of skilled and unskilled workers in industrial organizations
D) the formation of agricultural marketing cooperatives
E) the use of stock holding trusts to create business oligopolies

D. the formation of agricultural marketing cooperatives

Software Testing Job Market Research: – Career Training @ Portnov School – 3

Stock Market Astrology XI

W D Gann was one of the greatest Traders of all time and he used astro charts in Trading. He made more than 50 millions dollars from The Stock Market. His theory was based on Cycles that history repeats itself. He asserted that stock market movements are cyclical and that stock market dynamics is pure maths ! One day the Market goes up by 2% and next day it comes down by 2%. What else can the movement be, except maths ? Mathematical and astrological principles are the ba sis of all.

The Cyclical or the Periodic Law

Everything is cyclical. Shelley’s ‘ If Winter comes, can Spring be far behind ” corresponds to the stock market equation ” If Recession comes, can Boom be far behind ” ! The Law of Bipolarity in Nature – rise & fall, flow & ebb, day & night, pleasure & pain, birth & death – corresponds to the gain and loss in the stock market. Technical Analyis points out that all scrips display regular and recurrent patterns of price behaviour. If you observe India’ s premier stock Reliance, you will come to know that it went up during boomtime and registered a sharp fall during recession.

Mr. Henry Hall, in his recent book devoted much space to ‘Cycles of Prosperity and Depression’ which he found recurring at regular intervals of time. The mathematical laws which we have applied in Zodiac Stock Market Astrology will give these cyclical swings, identifying the primary, secondary and tertiary trends. The resistance and the support levels of the Sensex and all major scrips can be known by these mathematical methods.

The Fourfold Economic Movement

The fourfold movement of an Economic Cycle are – Revival, Expansion, Recession & Contraction.

Gann averred ” If we wish to avert failure in speculation, we must deal with causes. Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfect relationship. There is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things”

90% of the traders today are ” Lottery Traders” basing more on luck than on research. Stock trading is very lucrative and unfortunately there are no shortcuts. It is said that trading is easy but trading for profit is not ! A lot of time should be invested in research and study. Lottery traders believe in reading just a book and becoming a millionaire the next day. Like buying a lottery ticket and testing one’ luck ( where the probability of the investor getting the first prize is one out of 2 million ). 90% of all traders lose money because of a lack of discipline, patience and knowledge. All you need to succeed is just common sense. If you know basic maths, you can bring home the bacon. As W.D. Gann states: “If you can add, subtract, multiply and divide, you can do what I do”.

“It is so simple and easy to solve problems and get correct answers and results with figures that it seems strange so few people rely on them to forecast the future of business, Stocks and commodity markets. The basic principles are easy to learn and understand. No matter whether you use geometry, trigonometry, or calculus, you use the simple rules of arithmetic. You do only two things: You increase or decrease.” W.D. Gann (From his Stock Market Trading Course)

Elliot Wave Theory & Stock Market Astrology

Elliott concluded that the movement of the stock market could be predicted by observing and identifying a repetitive pattern of waves. We meant the same when we talked about planetary cycles in our earlier articles. In fact, Elliott believed that all of man’s activities, not just the stock market, were influenced by these identifiable series of waves. We meant the same that man’s activities can be predicted by these planetary cycles.

Astro-Economic Cycles

Stock Market Astrology states that Planetary Cycles do influence Economic Cycles. When we combine both we get the term Astro-economic cycles. The transit of the financial planet Jupiter do influence a nation’s economy. An adverse Jupiter in US’ horoscope is responsible for the fall of the Dow. We find that international indices are down. Only in India is there a stock market boom and this is due to the favourable posture of Jupiter in the lunar fifth.

By 2020, if we go by GDP growth , the No 1 nation will be China, second US & third India !

Secondary reactions are natural & the market is bound to bounce back once the correction is over. Grasim, Satyam Computers & Bharti Tele had reported excellent results. Amongst the cement companies, Grasim leads. Forbes includes Satyam, Infosys & Wipro in the list of the best corporations of India in their magazine. Also Bharat Forge. Knowledge, patience and discipline alone can win the game for us, as Gann remarked !

About the Author

Article by G Kumar, astrologer, writer and programmer of
www.eastrovedica.com . He has 15 years research experience in Stock Market
Astrology and various other branches of Astrology. Recently he was awarded
a Certificate by the Planetary Gemologists Association. as a Planetary Gem
Advisor. His Stock Market Astrology Blog is up at
http://stockmarketastrology.blogspot.com & lens at

http://squidoo.com/FinancialAstrology

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AGORACOM Small Cap Stock TV – July 6, 2010

How to select good small cap Stock Picks

Stock Market can be a good money maker if you know how to play The Stock Market correctly. A lot of people get into the stock market thinking they can make big money but then lose money by making some rash decisions.

These decisions most often are based on gut feel and not on solid research. Stock Market Research is the key to making money in the stock market. There are two types of stock market research that can be done in the stock market. Each of the types of research can lead to good amount of money if proper Investing discipline is followed.

The two types of research that can be done is the fundamental research and the technical analysis research. Both of these styles are very different and require different kind of discipline and methodology while buying the Stocks.

Get Best Penny Stock Pick Program to help you to make profit!

 
In fundamental research you research a stock which has a long term potential and then keep on accumulating this stock for future gains. The time horizon for this type of Investment Strategy can be really long like say two years to four five years. This type of style requires the art of Stock Picking to be perfected in terms of their fundamental strengths. Also the attributes of this kind of a Stock Trader are that they are patient and have immense amount of perseverance. They know the art of stock picking and can wait for some time to pick a Good Stock.
 
In the Technical research the main emphasis is on trending and the Traders thrive on the volatility of the market. Based on the trending they buy and sell stocks. Stock quality is important but not to the extent as in fundamental research. Also the main aim here is to make money on a short term basis and do not hold the stock for long. They exploit the inefficiencies in the system as a tool for buying and then selling or offloading the stock once they reach a threshold profit percentage or the stock reaches a particular trend. These traders can also make money in a bearish market.
 
So if you are investing in the market you will need to enough discipline to follow any approach. There is no middle path and the middle path will not make you enough of profits. So make sure that you follow one strategy and make money from it. Remember patience is a virtue in any business.

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About the Author

Small-cap Stock Investors; what is the best success you’ve had investing in stocks with value of $300m-$2 bn?

I am just curious as to the potential of investing into small-cap stocks, (not penny/AIM stocks!), but companies with a market capitalisation of $300 million to $2 billion and are just starting to rapidly grow in business?

I’m in some Mutual Funds that invest in small-cap stocks and they have had respectible
returns. As a group, they go up and down as all the groups do. I believe Acorn International
is a small-cap foreign investment fund and I’ve been happy with the returns. You are quite
wise to avoid Penny Stocks.

Banks Recovered, but the Economy Struggled in 2009

Tokyo Condominium Prices Reaching For The Sky

Land prices in Japan climbed for a second year in 2007 after a 15-year downturn, as private funds and real estate investment trusts competed to attain properties in the country’s largest cities.

A 2007 survey by the Real Estate Economic Institute and a group of real estate appraisers shows that the index of the coupon yield on condos in Tokyo fell to 4.1 per cent last year – down 0.7 percentage point from 2006. The index for the five central-Tokyo wards of Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku and Shibuya also fell down 0.7 point to 4.1 per cent.

The return is calculated by simply dividing rental income by the amount invested. Calculations were performed on the assumption that funds were managed by Investing in developer-built condos freshly launched on the market in 2007.

The slide in the return has occurred for a third consecutive year for the overall Tokyo market. The Earnings for central Tokyo has been following a downward trend since the survey started in 2000. Last year, condo prices for overall Tokyo increased to 755,000 yen (US$7,243) per sq. meter, a rise of 12.3 per cent. But rents detracted 3.4 per cent to 2,552 yen per sq. meter.

The number of condominiums ready for sale in the Tokyo metropolitan area slumped 29.7 percent in April to 2,875 units, plummeting for the eighth straight month as prices continued to surge, the Real Estate Economic Institute reported. The year-on-year figure is the worst since 1993 and reaffirms the fact that the condominium market is cooling.

The Tokyo-based private research firm revealed the shrinkage in supply is being caused by condominium prices that are rising along with the price of land, inducing people to delay decisions to buy. Among all the condos that went on sale in Tokyo and neighboring areas in the reporting month, 63.1 percent attracted buyers, falling 11.2 points for the 24th consecutive year-on-year slide, according to the institute.

A prompt recovery in the condominium market is improbable as distributors will be keen to sell units they purchased at high prices, at least for the time being. Prices rose 1.7 percent on average after improving 0.4 percent a year earlier, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said in Tokyo. Average commercial land progressed 3.8 percent from 2.3 percent in 2006, and residential land increased 1.3 percent from 0.1 percent.

Higher condominium prices coupled with stagnant wages are diminishing demand for residential property. Average wages downturned in 2007 and condo prices rose as developers lrestricted supply and allowed record steel and copper costs to home buyers.

Home prices are likely to plunge within several months because of an oversupply of condominiums and depleting affordability for households according to Takehiro Sato, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo. It’s natural to witness a drop in demand.
Consumer confidence reached a five-year low. Household assets declined for the first time in five years last quarter as shares slumped, a Bank of Japan report demonstrated last week. The Topix index of Stocks has plummeted 17 percent this year after a 12 percent drop in 2007.

An alteration in building regulations may also be decreasing gains in residential land prices, according to Sato. The government’s establishment of stricter building-permit rules last June resulted in a logjam in applications that ‘worsened the cash position of condo developers,’ making them less capable to pay higher prices for new sites, Sato said. Tokyo condo prices climbing is definitely going to have a telling impact on the property market in Japan.

About the Author

Gregory Smyth is an independent author providing assessment and comments on leading International Property Consultants in Asia and Greater China, especially CB Richard Ellis.

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Market Technical Analysis – Financial Stocks Lead Finally, Small Caps Rocking For $$$

Technical Analysis Of Stock Data

To perform a technical analysis is simply examining stock chart data in order to make predictions about the future of that stock. Investors who use this style of analysis are often unconcerned about the nature or value of the companies they Trade Stocks in. They only invest in a stock as far as it is projected to yeild profit, then they sell all their stock.

1. The technical analysis

In order to perform a technical analysis, you have to observe how stock prices within certain industries move and interact. All the factors that influence price movement company performance, the general state of the economy, natural disasters are supposedly reflected in the Stock Market with great efficiency. This efficiency, coupled with historical trends produces movements that can be analyzed and applied to future stock market movements.

2. Short term Investing

Technical analysis is not intended for long-term investments because fundamental information concerning a companys potential for growth is not taken into account. Trades must be entered and exited at precise times, so technical analysts need to spend a great deal of time watching market movements.

3. Upswings and downswings

There are many tools available to the technical analyst. Literally hundreds of stock patterns have been developed over time. Most of them, however, rely on the basic concepts of support and resistance. Support is the level that downward prices are expected to rise from, and Resistance is the level that upward prices are expected to reach before falling again. In other words, prices tend to bounce once they have hit support or resistance levels.

4. Charts

Technical analysis relies heavily on charts for tracking market movements. Bar charts are the most commonly used. They consist of vertical bars representing a particular time period weekly, daily, hourly, or even by the minute. The top of each bar shows the highest price for the period, the bottom is the lowest price, and the small bar to the right is the opening price and the small bar to the left is the closing price. A great deal of information can be seen in glancing at bar charts. Long bars indicate a large price spread and the position of the side bars shows whether the price rose or dropped and also the spread between opening and closing prices.

The other major type of chart that is used is called a Candlestick Chart, and this is used to show the slight variations between the opening and closing prices of all stocks daily. Candlesticks form various shapes that can indicate market movement. A green body with short shadows is bullish the stock opened near its low and closed near its high. Conversely, a red body with short shadows is bearish the stock opened near the high and closed near the low. Experts analyze these trends closely and invest based on their results.

About the Author

For more great stocks related articles and resources check out
http://commodityseeker.info

Is a 200 day moving average the same as a 200 period moving average in terms of technical analysis for stocks?

yes

Here’s the definition of a moving average

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/movingaverage.asp

Unless specified, it is a simple moving average (SMA), not weighted or exponential

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sma.asp

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Indian Stock Market – the Reason Behind Booming of Indian Stock Market

Over the past two years, it has been observed that with the sluggish economy rate, every country is suffering. However, the Indian stock market is still booming with its results, and it is the best example for attracting foreign investors. Having fallen along with other world markets during the last year crash, it actually bucked the global trend and was nowhere near testing its multiple year lows.

Indian market returns over the past couple of years have actually beaten most other global markets. The following is the good reasons for booming of The Stock Market.

While it is still classed as an emerging market, Indian strength comes from the fact that its internal market is not only huge, but also better insulated than China, Brazil, Russia and South Korea. It operates at its own pace, seemingly oblivious to what happens around it. With a population of over one billion, India has a huge edge over smaller emerging markets because it has the critical mass to withstand minor shocks to the system. India is not reliant on a huge export market for the bulk of its growth.

It has a huge, educated middle class. In fact, Indians middle class population is larger than that of the entire United States. Of course, this middle class earns less on average than poverty line families in America, but it has the capacity to spend enough money to buy products that were once considered luxuries. This generates tremendous economic activity without the issues of trade balance.

Because of Indian protectionist business nature, companies tend to thrive without the threat of multiple national competition. Most of the foreign investors are recommending Indian Stock market for future benefits. Finally, there are some well established and experienced stock market agencies providing their services to their customers. For more information and details, please do not hesitate to visit their informative website.

About the Author

This website provides the latest information of Indian stock market with stock prices & market indexes of the different industries.To know about Indian STOCK MARKET visit our website.

My 401k, should I invest in my company stock or Mutual Funds?

my company stock is pretty low right now, its at $13/share

Well, that mainly depends on two things:

1) Why did your company’s stock fall?
Is your company losing a lot of money? Is there a chance it will go bankrupt in the next year or two? Is it in a cyclic industry with a downturn that will recover with the US economy?

2) Does you company have a 401k matching plan? Many companies will match your investment, particularly when it in the own stock. For example, perhaps the company will give you 1 share for each 4 you buy, giving you a 25% profit cushion to hedge against future losses. In this case, the company stock will likely be a better investment.

Of course, you should talk with your HR rep about these matters. He/she can explain your options better (your mutual fund choices will likely be limited which will help narrow down your decision). You can also talk to experienced employees at your company and see what they recommend, because they may have a better idea of the future performance of the company as well how the company has reacted to dips in the past.

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Options Trading

How Can You Explain Option Trading?

Before entering into any new form of investment, it is essential that you are able to comprehensively understand the activity. For instance, can you explain option trading? If it is somewhat that you will direct your nest egg or income towards, you must be able to realize accurately what it entails.

Someone who can explain option trading will naturally have a clear understanding of the fundamental terminology, processes, and policies. This is not as easy or even as “basic” as it looks. Option trading is fairly a distinctive approach to control information and generating a certain level of risk management, and it doesn’t even have to involve the purchase of a single stock, security or commodity.

If you can explain options trading clearly and in very few words then you are probably a good candidate to begin participating in this lucrative approach to Investing immediately. If an explanation is bit difficult for you to handle, however, you can opt for spending dome time doing research, participating in seminars of classes, and creating a much clearer and adequate base of knowledge before you make your first investments.

One major mistake made by millions of investors is to simply hand over their hard-won income to a trader or brokerage without first understanding what is going to be done with their money.

So, what is a basic explanation of options trading? Without entering into a huge amount of detail, suffice it to say that an option is a contract between a buyer and a seller. The buyer is purchasing the “right” to buy or sell at least one hundred shares of an underlying asset (it could be stock, commodity, or any other financial vehicle) at a fixed price. The seller or “writer” is obligated to honor the terms of the contract.

What is the work process for this in the world of Financial Trading? It is a basically very straightforward – for example you are a buyer who considers that a particular stock is going to rise in value by a certain time period. You call up a writer to purchase a ‘call option’ to buy that stock at a fixed price before a certain date. If you exercise the option you can purchase that stock for the guaranteed price, or you can just sell your option for the profit. While that is the most streamlined and overly simplified explanation, it does indicate the way that options can be used to leverage risk.

About the Author

Visit Ideal Trading International to know how to
explain option trading and learn more about trading concepts.

How can I earn in option trading?

Lot of people say they made million in Stock Market and option trading but I think in reall world its not true.

Options are much more difficult than The Stock Market. If you sock away money in domestic and foreign stock markets over a period of decades, particularly if you use low-cost index funds, the odds are good that you will have outperformed most other ways of increasing your savings because markets tend to move up over long periods of time and they also pay dividends. A relatively clueless person can make significant money by regularly putting money into a handful of index funds over time. Options don’t work that way–they’re very tricky. If you don’t understand stock trading–and understand it very very well–you should just not even think about Trading Options.

It is definitely true that many, many people have made tremendous amounts of money by Investing In The Stock Market, but a key question is always time horizon. If you invested in the S&P 500 market index in 2000, your returns as of today are not so great. If you started in 2003 at about the time the Iraq War was starting, they’re very good. If you started in 1990 or 1980, your returns have been great. There are good arguments to be made that the returns won’t be as good in the future… but the past 27 years have been pretty amazing for investors.

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Day Trading Stocks Options Trading Analysis Amazon.com AMZN

How To Learn Day Trading – Some Quick Tips!

Day Trading can be a fantastic way to earn money but it is not as easy as some people make it out to be. Don’t let that turn you off though, if you want to learn day trading then by all means do it, if you learn how to trade wisely it can pay off nicely. In fact there are people who do so well with day trading that it has become their job, they make a full time income trading on the daily Stock Market. Although a challenging job, if you dedicate yourself to it then it can be a very profitable one. If you are on your quest to learn day trading, then these following tips will help you. 1. Have good time management. You want to know your gameplan early in the day, even before The Stock Market opens. You need to be out of bed and ready to go when the market opens and stocks start moving. The stock market opens at 9am in New York so it is a must to be up and ready by that time. If you live in a different country or state then it is even more important to manage your time well to know the opening times for your time zone. 2. Practise your analysis skills. When Investing In The Stock Market you are going to be watching many figures moving up and down and you will need to chart figures and find trends. Having good, fast analysis skills is a huge advantage so you can look at figures and be able to make a reasonably quick decision. 3. Be calm. If you lose money on a trade don’t fly off the handle and get all stressed about it, you wont win all the time and so there will be some losses. You need to let them go and move on. You need to use that loss and learn from it. If you get stressed over it you will lose your focus and probably go on to make bad decisions. Likewise, you need to stay calm when you have good wins, don’t let a win go to your head or this can also result in getting carried away and then making bad judgements. 4. Lastly, learn to research the market. Researching the stock market is vital to being a successful trader. You need to follow trends and chart results to be able to predict a profitable Stock Pick. Always do your research ahead of time and be prepared for your daily trades. If you think that you will be able to do the above tips well then day trading may be for you, so go ahead and start to learn day trading and I wish you very much success in your investing.

About the Author

Learn Day Trading and start investing wisely and you can soon be the expert at picking profitable stocks. To find out more about day trading visit Day Trading Robot

Technical Analysis questions, help please?

Hello

1. There’s only 30 stocks in the DJIA. It’s probably easier to set the indicators and just to flick through them than set up a scan. Meta Stock and a data provider that includes a custom folder of the DJIA stocks for the software. http://www.equis.com

2.
Bollinger Bands: 20-period simple moving average, 2 standard deviation bands from the moving average. Leave as is for intra-week. Also use a 50 week simple moving average.

I don’t use Relative strength Index, so I can’t comment

28 July 2009 NYSE Opening Bell ETF Securities

International Investing: Going Global

China has been in the news quite frequently the last few months. Whether it’s been the stories of large offers to purchase American-owned companies, or their gradual rise in status to economic super-power, the Communist nation is clearly making waves in the world markets.

China is making aggressive moves to one day rival the U.S. in economic dominance on a global scale. According to U.S. News and World Report, in the year 2020, China’s economy will pass Japan’s to become the second largest in the world. Second, of course, only to the U.S. China’s major industries include oil and petroleum, as well as telecommunications. And the country is home to an estimated 2 million people who have a net worth of a least $40 million. That number is only expected to grow, and with it, so will opportunities for investment.

Diversification has long been a basic rule of thumb for investment. But never before has there been such a wide range of opportunities for diversification outside of the U.S. and those opportunities only seem to increase daily. China’s experiment with capitalism means more and more opportunity for U.S. investors who wish to tap into an ever-growing and potentially lucrative worldwide market.

Many experts differ in how much global investment to keep in your portfolio. Some warn to stay away completely. The world markets have not always done so well, and are often volatile, which is one more reason to keep a sensible balance within your portfolio between foreign and domestic holdings. But others recommend investing up to 20% or more of your portfolio in the worldwide markets to increase diversification. Diversification seeks to reduce risk while maximizing returns by investing in dissimilar asset classes. It should be noted that this strategy does not prevent losses from occurring in a down market.

A great deal of the emerging markets success, experts believe, can be attributed to restructuring by countries around the world. Many believe that Japan is expected to start moving from a manufacturing economy to a service economy soon. Experts believe that the transition will bring numerous potential opportunities for success, both in Japan and across the globe

So how do you take advantage of such a global economy? While something can be said for buying and supporting the U.S., China and many other developing countries, offer a distinct opportunity for global investment in an emerging market. Opportunities abound for investment in global funds, indexes, or bonds, and other global investments which target specific countries or a group of countries. All of these added markets and countries in your portfolio can lead to greater diversification in an attempt to minimize risk.

As the world moves forward, economies are gradually shifting and always adapting. The ones that are doing it quickly and efficiently are seeing a great deal of success. Investing in global markets is not without risk. The volatility can be extreme at times. But that’s why diversification has become such a popular Investment Strategy. With the proper balancing and a specific investment strategy formulated with a financial professional, you can invest in countries across the world and potentially take advantage of world growth. And add a bit of international flavor to your portfolio in the process.

International Stocks entail special risks associated with international investing, including currency exchange fluctuation, government regulations, and the potential for political and economic instability.

About the Author

Robert Valentine is a well-known expert in the matters concerning investors. His popular
Retirement Planning

articles have been published by several publications throughout the United States. Please visit his website,
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to view his column.

Why is international diversification so important?

In reviewing several international etfs, VGK, VPL, ILF, MES etc., all of which followed the S&P down during the meltdown, why is exposure to international stocks considered so important? Wouldn’t it be better to just buy a few stocks from around the world like PBR, AMX, NSRGY, IBN, CHL or TM and hedge the portfolio with a market short etf? I’m not saying buy them all or anything like that in fact I already own a few, it just bugs me that when all heck broke loose, everything fell, even the international stocks so can someone please tell me what I am missing about diversification? Paul?

Remember that old economic adage;
“When the US gets the sniffles, the rest of the world gets a cold.”

It seems to me that over the last 30 months or so, the US got pneumonia, and the rest of the world got …..well….pneumonia too!

I’m not a “trader”. I don’t claim to be one, and those that are good at it have my respect, but they are few and far between. I have the license that allows me to act as a broker and trade for others, but I’m much better at structuring a buy and hold investment portfolio for a given risk tolerance, as opposed to trying to be a Stock Picker. One thing I’ve learned about ETF’s and other new investment vehicles is that the introduction of many of them is demand driven. If there is an interest in a specific area or procedure or market trick or developing technology, some firm will issue a new ETF or UIT or CEF or Mutual Fund to serve that demand. Too many of these new issue securities are devised by guys with PHD’s in mathematics who wouldn’t know a weather related downturn in a commodity (as a random example) from a turned down bed.

Much of modern portfolio theory got thrown out the window during 2008 and early 2009 because it seemed as if there was no safe asset class at all. But that was a once in a lifetime event. If every recession and market correction was as severe as what we all just went through (and are still going through, to be sure) it wouldn’t really matter where you put your money.

But luckily, most recessions and market corrections aren’t like that.

I still think MPT ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_portfolio_theory ) and diversification has merit and I am a firm believer in trying to mitigate risk whenever possible. But the world is a very different place from the days when that theory was devised. Hell, when that theory was first formulated, the primary transport for the overwhelming majority of Chinese was the bicycle. I think you’re aware of how much things have changed.

I don’t really have an answer for you, Douglas. I don’t think you are missing anything, to be honest.

Want to know what the absolute perfect play would have been from Oct. of ‘07 when the Dow peaked at over 14,000 to the end of 2008? It’s easy to see in retrospect, but damned few people did this, I’ll bet and it is the antithesis to being diversified;

If you had sold every single equity position you had in early October of 2007 and bought new or recent issue, 30 year Treasury bonds the same day, you could have bought those bonds for between 90 and 95% of par. Those bonds were paying a 4.5% coupon at the time. If you had held those bonds for just 14 months – from Oct. 07 to December of 08 and sold them, you would have seen the bonds increase in value from $950 a piece to around $1400 a piece AND been paid $45.00 per bond in interest payments. In December of 2008 the yield on the 30 year fell all the way to 3% AND BELOW! It bottomed out at 2.53% on December 18, 2008. That was the perfect play. No tricks, no options, no shorting, just simply exchanging equities for long treasuries. And you would have seen a +45% return on your money for the year while every long equity portfolio on the planet was DOWN about the same.

Almost every conservative portfolio model I have dealt with, and by that I mean ones with a Beta of less than 1, had the international sleeve as less than 25%, usually WAY less. The more aggressive the mix, the higher the international percentage. That has or will likely change over time as the BRIC’s of the world get past the stage of being “emerging” and become more established. There are two billion people between India and China that now have access to information on an unprecedented scale and they will all want what people in the west take for granted; Cars, Air conditioning, refrigerators and other appliances, modern sanitation systems, highways, etc. etc. etc. So counting them out in the coming decades would be a mistake.

All is not lost for the USA though. In spite of many opinions I have read on the internet regarding the failures of the American system, in the past, many people and countries have underestimated the ingenuity and capability of the American people to bounce back.

They will do so again at their own peril.

There is another old adage;
Buy on panic, Sell on euphoria,

I’ll add one more thing. Where is the absolute last place you would consider investing? What geographical area or asset class would you currently consider as something to be avoided at all costs?

THAT is the one to start taking a hard look at now.